Prediction #8: Verifiable Credentials and Digital Wallets will expand in pilots, with policy mandates as potential accelerants
Continuing on I2IDL’s top ten predictions for learning technologies and data infrastructure in 2026, our eighth prediction is that policy mandates will drive accelerated adoption of Verifiable Credentials in 2026, with pilots expanding across the EU, U.S. workforce programs, and higher education.
(ICYMI, check out Prediction #7 about skills taxonomies.)
Confidence Level: 4/5 ★★★★☆
The infrastructure for Verifiable Credentials (VCs), and the digital wallets that hold them, is maturing rapidly: W3C published Verifiable Credentials 2.0 as a full Recommendation in May 2025. The Open Badges 3.0 and the Comprehensive Learner Record 2.0 specs are finalized and VC-aligned.
The T3 Innovation Network’s Learning and Employment Record (LER) work is steaming ahead. They’re providing open-source tools via their LinkedCreds initiative, recently published a LER skills-based toolkit, and worked with HR Open to develop a LER Resume Standard (LER-RS) specification, which was released September 2025. The EU Digital Identity Wallet has a 2026 operational target.
In 2026, we expect significant pilot expansion of VCs in EU member states (driven by eIDAS 2.0), across U.S. workforce development programs (catalyzed by the T3 Innovation Network’s influence), and throughout higher education (modeled by the Digital Credentials Consortium). This year could be a tipping point for certain VC/LER use cases, driven by EU initiatives and emerging U.S. demands, such as new compliance requirements for Medicaid eligibility (frequent verification of work, volunteer, education program participation).
A potential wildcard for U.S. adoption: the Educational Choice for Children Act (ECCA), established under P.L. 119-21 in July 2025, creates federal tax credits for donations to Scholarship Granting Organizations effective January 2027. Scholarship funds can cover private school tuition, tutoring, and other educational expenses for families under 300% of area median income. If states adopt requirements to track where funds go and what outcomes result (which we expect some will), then digital wallets linking learning experiences to follow-the-learner funding data could see accelerated adoption in 2026 as programs prepare for compliance.
The question is, which sectors move first? Policy-driven use cases (workforce development, education funding accountability, Medicaid compliance) are accelerating fastest. Enterprise HR, lacking similar mandates, will likely follow more slowly once verification workflows and trusted issuer networks mature.
A point of caution is that VCs are likely to become a political flashpoint. As governments explore requiring digital credentials for visas, benefits eligibility, or cross-border workforce mobility, questions of surveillance, data sovereignty, and exclusion will intensify. Who controls the wallet infrastructure? What happens to those who can’t or won’t adopt? How do we prevent credential requirements from becoming barriers rather than enablers? The technology is maturing faster than the policy frameworks governing its ethical use, and 2026 may surface these tensions more visibly.
So what? For organizations piloting digital credentials, design for portability from the start. If you’re in a policy-driven sector, timelines may accelerate faster than expected, so build accordingly. For enterprise HR, monitor the public sector pilots; their lessons will inform your eventual adoption path. For the learning data standards community, VCs present both an opportunity and an urgency. The credentialing ecosystem (W3C VCs, Open Badges, CLR) and the learning data ecosystem (xAPI, TLA, IEEE standards) have matured in parallel but aren’t fully interconnected. The integration layer—how credentials reference underlying learning records, how an LRS feeds evidence to credentialing systems, how an Enterprise Learner Record incorporates both—is underspecified. If proprietary platforms fill this gap first, they’ll do so with closed integrations. The standards community has a window to define that bridge openly.
